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I was amazed when I heard that FedEx is dropping its agreement with Amazon and will no longer deliver the behemoth’s packages. FedEx has said that Amazon represented less than 1.3% of its total revenue last year, or less than $1 billion. The potentially big winner will be UPS who Amazon has to turn to because it does not have any other options, at least for now. The rub for UPS is that Amazon already represents 10% of its revenues, and additional growth will further expose UPS to unhealthy concentration with Amazon who could decide to build out its own delivery system.

The other side of this story is the lowly US Postal Service. Last Friday the USPS reported a decline in package volume for the first time in 9 years. FedEx, UPS, and other services are discounting to lure shippers to join their network and the quasi-governmental agency is losing revenue to fund operations. All of this adds up to the next bloody chapter in the ecommerce revolution, and it feels like the post office is going to be the big loser.


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